Okay, this tells me you really don't understand model serving or any of the details of infrastructure. The hardware is incredibly ephemeral. Your home GPU might last a few years (and I'm starting to doubt that you've even trained a model at home), but these GPUs have incredibly short lifespans under load for production use.
Even if you're not working on the back end of these models, you should be well aware that one of the biggest concerns about all this investment is how limited the lifetime of GPUs is. It's not just about being "outdated" by superior technology, GPUs are relatively fragile hardware and don't last too long under constant load.
As far as models go, I have a hard time imagining a world in 2030 where the model replies "sorry, my cutoff date was 2026" and people have no problem with this.
Also, you still didn't address my point that startups doing inference only model serving are burning cash. Production inference is not the same as running inference locally where you can wait a few minutes for the result. I'm starting to wonder if you've ever even deployed a model of any size to production.
I didn't address the comment about how some startups are operating at a loss because it seems like an irrelevant nitpick at my wording that "none of them" is operating inference at a loss. I don't think the comment I was replying to was referring to relying on whatever startups you're talking about. I think they were referring to Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI - and so was I.
That seems like a theme with these replies, nitpicking a minor thing or ignoring the context or both, or I guess more generously I could blame myself of not being more precise with my wording. But sure, you have to buy new GPUs after making a bunch of money burning the ones you have down.
I think your point about knowledge cutoff is interesting, and I don't know what the ongoing cost to keeping a model up to date with world knowledge is. Most of the agents I think about personally don't actually want world knowledge and have to be prompted or fine tuned such that they won't use it. So I think that requirement kind of slipped my mind.
This thread isn't about who wins, it's about the implication that it's too risky to build anything that depends on inference because AI companies are operating at a loss.
Yes, obviously? There is no world where the models and hardware just vanish.