Now that Nvidia is the most valuable company, all this talk of actual AGI will be washed away by the huge amount of dollars driving the hype train.
Most of these companies value is built on the idea of AGI being achievable in the near future.
AGI being too close or too far away affects the value of these companies- too close and it'll seem too likely that the current leaders will win. Too far away and the level of spending will seem unsustainable.
> Most of these companies value is built on the idea of AGI being achievable in the near future.
Is it? Or is it based on the idea a load of white collar workers will have their jobs automated, and companies will happily spend mid four figures for tech that replaces a worker earning mid five figures?
I think companies that expect to use AI to cut their salary overhead making the same products they were before are going to get clobbered by companies that use AI to grow. A few people may have to retrain into a different line of work but I don't really see AI putting people out of work en masse.
From what I've seen, the most-compelling thesis involves robotics. We're seeing evidence that LLMs tokenising physical inputs can operate robots better than previous methods. If that's pans out, the investment thesis is secured. No AGI needed.
That is for a governing body to look out for. NOT private companies. Governments have a job to run massive programs for socioeconomic welfare without carrying about profit.
that is doubtful? sure it provides a lot of value but current levels are dotcom top level. Everyone knew internet had value but stocks push it too high
Most of these companies value is built on the idea of AGI being achievable in the near future.
AGI being too close or too far away affects the value of these companies- too close and it'll seem too likely that the current leaders will win. Too far away and the level of spending will seem unsustainable.