> I'm sure online merchants are happy to keep paying their ~3% fees as long as sales continue
There might be an opening in subscriptions. Those merchants know their customers, and may be willing to take on fraud risk for material bump in revenue.
I think the opportunity is for platforms that can manage risk. Consumers are more likely to give direct bank account access to platforms that they trust. For example, Apple's App Store is well-positioned to run subscriptions over ACH, and they have the consumer trust to get some adoptoin.
But, then you're trading one evil for another - because Apple will want their cut, too.
At the end of the day - it's a battle between value centers and cost centers. Businesses would generally rather make more money than save money.
> Apple's App Store is well-positioned to run subscriptions over ACH, and they have the consumer trust to get some adoptoin
You have to get one side to trust it. Visa and MasterCard succeeded by making it easy for consumers. The counterpunch is likely in winning over merchants. If Netflix or Spotify gave me a small discount for running over alternate payment rails, I don't need to trust the intermediary, I trust Netflix or Spotify to not screw a decade-long customer over pennies.
There might be an opening in subscriptions. Those merchants know their customers, and may be willing to take on fraud risk for material bump in revenue.