Echoing another comment, one huge problem with the current sports betting market is banning/limiting winners.
I started prop-odds.com to help the more mathematically inclined gamblers take advantage of mispriced odds or let them build and backtest their own models. So while it's actually not too difficult to beat the book, the challenge comes from evading their detection and getting banned.
I do find this annoying, but to play devil's advocate, it is supposed to be just entertainment. The question is who is losing money when you find an edge like that? Is it the sportsbook? Or is it poor souls (The fools) on the other side of those bets? Probably a bit of both. To some extent, the sportsbooks is simply acts as a marketplace to pair up two sides of a bet, and taking a cut. In all honestly though, if they set limits, fine, but they should set the same limit for everyone. I am intrigued by your web site, I have to say.
Yes, you have a point. The "soft-books" (FanDuel, DraftKings) use the justification of being a form of entertainment as the reason to limit players. Fair enough, I have no personal issue with that.
As for who is losing money, I think you're also correct about that. Both the sportsbook and losing bettors will subsidize the "sharp bettor".
It's also worth noting that some sportsbooks (the more well established ones like Caesars and Pinnacle) do limit all players equally. That's because the do as you say and act like a marketplace to pair up both sides of the bet.
The problem with entertainment books is that they often pick a side on the bet so each side is not equally balanced. An attempt to maximize potential profits for themself instead of the traditional strategy to minimize their risk.
Those situations where the book picks a side are interesting. Do you have any insight on how those situations arise? To me they must find a big difference between what their internal model says, and what public perception says, and so they create a point spread in the middle to lure the better into the taking the less favorable side.
Fully is a hard threshold to meet, but most of the US Equity markets have determinism windows in the ballpark of 1-3us. Some Futures markets have got under the 1us window, though I don’t recall exactly what the threshold minimum is there.
No market is fully deterministic, however there are a lot of correlations in all markets. Take options. The option is a derivative and therefore its price is defined by the underlying stock. This was mathematically proven by Black & Scholes (and they got a Nobel prize for it).
So, when the underlying moves (the stock) the option should move according to the model. But there are time inefficiencies in the market so a HFT can trade against the misplaced option and lock in a bit of profit. Do that a million times a day any you may make a few bucks.
The parent post is talking about the determinism of the order gateway/matching engine/market data publisher, not the price.
Determinism is achieved there by ensuring there is only one path to the order gateway with everyone having cables of equal length, and that the order in which network packets hit the gateway is guaranteed to be the order the matching engine processes the packets in. Likewise you need to ensure everyone sees the market data at the same time (equal length cables, multicast). Most exchanges fail hard at guaranteeing this.
For your option example, I think you paint a somewhat misleading picture of options trading. You can't trivially arbitrage the spot and the option. There are several unknown factors between the two. An options market-maker works by taking on risk, decomposing it based on the sensitivities of the price to the various inputs, spreading it across the option universe and biasing its prices so that trades statistically take them back to zero. It's closer to a dispersion strategy. For some markets, delta (sensitivity to the underlying) risk is bad to take on so you try to hedge out of it fast, or you avoid trading options with too much delta in them. Trading high-delta requires being fast to react on underlying moves. But that's just an extra requirement when operating this kind of strategy and isn't how you make profit. Even taking out mispriced options after a move is usually mostly done as a way to get out of risk for cheap, and what you'd care about most there is modelling the spot-volatility dynamics.
Given that the stable, dev, beta, and nightly logos used to basically just be palette swaps, they're supposed to be. PLus, "dev" firefox is literally the same version of Firefox as stable, but with a few about:config flags set differently by default. It's not even a different release version =)
I built prop_odds [1]. It's an API offering live (and historical) sports betting odds from different sites.
I've been working on it for about 2 months. While not quite at 2k/month yet, it's nearly there and progressing in that direction. Revenue is coming from several customers who are using the data to build Discord bots that alert them (and their own paying users) about good odds, arbitrage opportunities, etc.
Nice! I been looking for this last week actually. But would help if you list which sites you actually have. I have no idea if you have the sites im looking for and would love to know that before signing up.
Hey, sorry for a late reply! I've just updated our website's Features page [0]. It lists all the sportsbooks and sports we currently support, and what will be added next.
I guess you scrape odds from bookmakers' websites (I expecxt a fair bit of headless Selenium). Is there any legal implication of scraping data this way and reselling re-packaged as an API?
Some books we're able to partner with and they give us an API to access the data through. Other we do need to scrape, given that there is no explicit "you can't do that" in their Terms & Conditions. Some books do have such a statement, so we aren't able to offer those.
My father is slowly declining in an assisted living facility. It costs a fortune because we have to provide 24-hr a day sitters to be with him. The last time I saw him I don't think he knew who I was.
Yes, my last memory of my grandfather was him mistaking me for a friend of his. I'd rather my children and grandchildren see me finish my race strong and with my wits about me, then drugged into a stupor.
I use Obsidian for note taking and pretty much anything I need to write down. I like it because they're just markdown files and it's easy to back up with Git.
It also has lots of extensions too. Including vim!
