You wish, that gray beard sometimes appears in your late thirties.

Maybe. But also what I though was a gray beard in my early 20's is very different from what I think a gray beard is now. The number of those I've considered wizards decreased, and I think this should be true for most people. It's harder to differentiate experts as a novice, but as you get closer the resolution increases.

The more I know, the more I know I don’t know.

...and the more I know you don't know. [On the disappearance of wizards as you age]

Both definitely contribute. But at the same time the people who stay wizards (and the people you realize are wizards but didn't previously) only appear to be more magical than ever.

Some magic tricks are unimpressive when you know how they are done. But that's not true for all of them. Some of them only become more and more impressive, only truly being able to be appreciated by other masters. The best magic tricks don't just impress an audience, they impress an audience of magicians.

Hit me pretty quickly after turning 40 (now 50)... in this last decade I've gone mostly bald and my facial hair is now mostly gray.

I wonder what happened to the dance floor. It appears at some point, and then apparently it disappears again too, because the youth stop coming.

I find I get better tests if I use agents to generate tests.

I went in and just… read it? Don’t see the issue with the thing.

I think it will vary considerably depending on the size, resolution, and quality of your display.

Somehow I expected a downvote, but I'm not really clear on why…

Really cool, but now we need to see it move?

It was moving in the video.

It was moving it's hands. Let's see it walk, run, climb stairs, etc

To be fair, even if it can't do that, it might still be a useful tool for some purposes.

I would be interested to see how strong it is though. If it's all for show and can't lift more than a human then it's pretty pointless.

It might be cool, and even a bit useful, but the hard part is the bipedal part. Arms on tracks work just fine, but they’re not quite as cool.

> The numbers actually have agreed-upon meaning

Theoretically, yes, but some managers go blank when given a hard concept like a probability distribution.

I've found that these incompetent folks (mostly in management as you say) really don't want to reveal their intellectual inferiority; they are desperate to hide it. If you started using this with your team, everyone adding value would benefit from the clarity, and the incompetent folks will just go along with it so as not to reveal their incompetence. They aren't adding value anyways, so it's fine if they fall behind.

> If you move this number around the whole estimation will crumble

I still love this sprint where the further into the sprint we went, the further the ‘remaining work’ line went up.

It’s good we could do that without blame, but it looks super funny.

And do you think those things are delivered on schedule any more often than software projects?

Take a look at the top of this thread and see what we're talking about.

The fact that people in many industries are not good at estimating doesn't mean that it's impossible in software development specifically and uniquely, as was originally claimed.

I don’t think I dislike being forced to estimate. I dislike being asked to estimate by the same people that consistently make those estimates worthless by introducing changes at literally every point in the process.

That cuts both ways though. You may hand out an estimate and then once you get into the research/POC weeds need to revise that estimate.