I personally think milei the politician is a clown. And many of his statements are just offensive to anyone who can spark two braincells together. I also thought he was going to burn it all down in a blaze of hubris after his election.
But its hard to argue with arresting the inflation, gdp, and budget surplus numbers. Im not sure how the economy is “going south.” Generously the policies have arrested the slide?
I dont imagine the typical argentine is better off with 200% inflation, 50% unemployment, and a 57% poverty rate. Avoiding that return seems to be quite a benefit for just about everyone?
> But its hard to argue with arresting the inflation, gdp, and budget surplus numbers. Im not sure how the economy is “going south.” Generously the policies have arrested the slide?
Sure it is. Public education and science funding is at a historic minimum that is destroying tons of long term scientific and educational initiatives. Roads are falling apart in a gigantic country and what’s left of rail is being scrapped for parts and sold to private entities that will let rails decay just like everywhere else where it was privatized.
Consumer spending continues to go down, industry is not competitive with this fake exchange rate causing a loss of high quality jobs and forcing everyone to take a second job as an Uber driver.
We’ve seen this play out again and again. The government will default, then hyperinflation and social crises until the low prices of everything make the economy competitive again.
This has played out again and again with far more competent governments and we keep being right about it.
The Argentinian government was literally out of cash. There was nothing left and no ability to borrow. So complaining about cuts to education, science, and transportation seems a little silly. How exactly were they supposed to pay for it?
In the long run there are things they can do to raise revenue and cut waste. But when you're stuck in a deep hole the first thing you need to do is stop digging.
One way to cover expenses is to raise income. The dude running the gov is a libertarian. I don't think he sees running out of other peoples money as a problem. It might be the point. "Big gov".
I don't think you understand the severity of the cash crunch they were facing. How exactly could they raise government revenue fast? Tax rates were already high and compliance was low. Can't get blood from a stone.
Longer term they could maybe sell off some state assets but it takes time to bring in any cash that way.
The severity of the cash crunch has been seen time and time again with the difference being that loans were used to fund a functioning government instead of being used by rich people to buy cheap US dollars to fund their vacations in Europe.
What's your point? Regardless of what was done before there were no more loans available in the short term.
Seriously, what was the alternative? If you have no money and no one will lend you any money then the only remaining options are to run the printing presses (hyperinflation) or stop spending.
The alternative was to take the loans, keep the existing currency control mechanisms, and run a moderate amount of inflation and exchange rate to keep the economy competitive while the income from exports in mining and ag kept coming in.
What's been done instead? Open currency markets while intervining to keep the US dollar artificially cheap, losing productivity and competitiveness and thus losing taxable income while funding cheap imports for consumer goods.
No, you're really missing the point. There were no loans being offered at the time the budget cuts were made. There were no loans to take. Their credit line had been exhausted. They had run out of other peoples' money. How are you not getting this?
No, I get the point because I've spoken to several specialists on the matter. The budget cuts Milei performed were far higher than what even the most conservative IMF program proposed.
There was no technical reason to cut budget to that level. It pure ideological motivation.
>>> No, I get the point because I've spoken to several specialists on the matter. The budget cuts Milei performed were far higher than what even the most conservative IMF program proposed.
You clearly don't. There was 2100% annual hyperinflation on the day Milei assumed. "Specialists" said that cutting inflation to monthly single digits couldn't be done, period.
Milei did it in less than 6 months.
The current predicament is a political one, not an economic one.
He allowed Argentinians to finally experience the freedom of a floating exchange rate. Under normal circumstances, if the Argentinians decided they had enough of the peso and wanted to forcefully commit to the USD, they could do so at whatever rate was offered.
The political problem is that now there's an election this weekend, and he now has to explain why Argentinians (and investors) don't want pesos if the FX goes too high. He should not have put the govt in the position to defend a peso... that Argentinians themselves do not want.
After the election, there will be nothing to speculate against, the currency will find whatever equlibrium was needed, and the "specialists" will go back to their corner, where they hide for being wrong.
> is at a historic minimum that is destroying tons of long term scientific and educational initiatives.
Education was always shit. I live in Argentina, the PISA results from last exam are demential and I doubt they can get worse, don't lie to people please. There's absolutely no way in the world education can get to today levels in one and a half years of Milei.
> Roads are falling apart in a gigantic country
Roads were NEVER good, either you don't live in Argentina and you definitely can't have an opinion, or you live here and never left your house. Again, please don't lie to people, we have been living in hell for 20 years, nothing breaks like you say in one and a half years.
> and what’s left of rail is being scrapped for parts and sold to private entities that will let rails decay just like everywhere else where it was privatized.
Whoa you have a crystal magic ball? The kukas governed for 20 years, don't tell me all the railroad system decayed exactly when Milei assumed...
Ok, good to know you have no idea what you're talking about.
Everything you're saying is hyperbole. "Things are bad" is not a serious talking point. Things are relative and between the education in Zimbabwe and Denmark there is a huge gap.
But its hard to argue with arresting the inflation, gdp, and budget surplus numbers. Im not sure how the economy is “going south.” Generously the policies have arrested the slide?
I dont imagine the typical argentine is better off with 200% inflation, 50% unemployment, and a 57% poverty rate. Avoiding that return seems to be quite a benefit for just about everyone?